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A new approach to simulating fisheries data for policy making

Höfundar: Sigurdardottir, S., Schruben, L.

Útgáfa: Natural Resource Modeling

Útgáfuár: 2014


The main objective of natural resource management is tocreate social and economic value while maintaining sustainability. In thispaper, we introduce an enhanced method for simulating high-dimensionaltime series and apply it to Icelandic fishing resource management data. Themethodology can be used in many contexts, but is particularly appropriatefor simulating the many complex interactions involved in natural resourcemanagement. The simulations can be used to explore the sensitivity of re-source management policies to future changes using an affinity parameter.Affinity, qualitatively similar to correlation, is a ordinal measure between –1and +1 that models one’s belief how much the future might behave like, ordifferent from, the past. The main appeal of the method is its reliance ondata and relative independence from assumptions about that data. In thepaper, we apply it on data on Icelandic cod with encouraging results.

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