Peer-reviewed articles

A new approach to simulating fisheries data for policy making

Authors: Sigurdardottir, S., Schruben, L.

Version: Natural Resource Modeling

Publication year: 2014

Summary:

The main objective of natural resource management is tocreate social and economic value while maintaining sustainability. In this paper, we introduce an enhanced method for simulating high-dimensionaltime series and apply it to Icelandic resource management data. Themethodology can be used in many contexts, but is particularly appropriate for simulating the many complex interactions involved in natural resource management. The simulations can be used to explore the sensitivity of re-source management policies to future changes using an a ffi nity parameter.A ffi nity, qualitatively similar to correlation, is an ordinal measure between –1and +1 that models one's belief how much the future might behave like , ordi ff erent from, the past. The main appeal of the method is its reliance ondata and relative independence from assumptions about that data. In the paper, we apply it on data on Icelandic cod with encouraging results.

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